Napkin Analysis 0.13.1 - Japan

[torino2dc]

To start out, I wanted to say a big thank you to everyone who commented on last week's balance change analysis -- it is very gratifying to see that I have stimulated some thought and discussion. Among those comments was @YouSatInGum, who expressed curiosity as to how I would break down the changes to Hayate. Say no more, we are going to Japan. 

For the first time in this series that means we'll be looking at aircraft carriers, which in turn requires a disclaimer. I am not a CV main nor do I pretend to have extensive experience in the class. What I do have is access to is a clan full of purple CV-enjoyers whom I can pepper with questions; and I have a lot experience playing against them. I hope that the analysis will nonetheless be useful and/or enjoyable.

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Links

Overview - Japan - United States - Russia - Great Britain - France - Italy - Pan Asia - Pan Europe & Spain

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Ryūjō (T6)
Stock Torpedo Bomber preparation time increased: 74s -> 81s
Researchable Torpedo Bomber preparation time increased: 73s -> 78s
Torpedo damage decreased: 5400 -> 5000

I'll be damned if there aren't some ships that WeeGee just can't stop messing with. Like a teenager with an unsightly blackhead, the optics of the problem get worse and worse with every 'intervention' until the whole affair becomes a messy wound that is best not talked about in polite company. HMS Leander and her enjoyers (what few remain after they were almost 'balanced' into extinction) are the unfortunate poster-children for this phenomenon in World of Warships. With them all along were the Ryūjō-lovers, who have been forced to endure the longest and most arduous 're-re-re-work' of any carrier in the game. 

How long are we allowed to re-work our re-work?

For a bit of history, there are roughly three eras in the history of re-worked aircraft carriers (excluding the Tier 11 CVs):

• 0.8.0 -> 0.8.7 Fresh off the rework in 0.8.0, lots of parameters were being shuffled around. 
• 0.9.2 -> 0.10.0 Devs were still addressing straggler issues like rocket planes and fighters; they also overhauled the captain skills.
• 0.10.1 onwards the CV gameplay loop was basically considered finished and received no further polish.

To me, any number of balance changes made in the first year after the re-work are entirely justifiable. The developer made the difficult decision to abandon the design direction of one its four main classes and completely overhaul it on the fly (ha). Naturally there were going to be a lot of parameter tweaks as they tried to hammer all of it into a tolerable package. 

The second year of adjustments is also fine in my book -- CV mains had a year to master the class and learn its intricacies. Certain problematic interactions remained (in particular, destroyers vs. rocket planes) which required some fiddling. By the third year, the only mysteries left to unpuzzle with the class would have been the long-term ramifications of the updated commander skills. Somehow, despite all of this, the Ryūjō was still getting nerfs deep into the fourth (0.11.x) and fifth (0.12.x) years after the re-work.

With 0.13.1 we are entering year six of the re-worked carriers, and my forbearance towards the balancing team is starting to wane considerably. Out of all the Tier 6 carriers, the Ryūjō is the only one to have received such an abundance of nerfs this late in her career (see charts below). What could possibly have taken so long to understand? 

Spoiler

Ryūjō Balance Changes in the CV Re-Work Era

Leander's Law of Serial Nerfing

The Ryūjō's gruelling journey has had an upside: thinking about it has helped clarify my position on nerfs. Hammering down a ship's power level hurts the players who love playing it. Every time such an intervention must be made, the developer is taking out a loan from the Bank of Credibility^TM; the 'benefit-of-the-doubt' lenders among the opinion leaders in the player base. It is very easy to bankrupt the perception that 'the devs know what they're doing' with serial nerfs because the costs of borrowing compound on one another. After the third nerf in a row, the dedicated players rightfully ask: does the developer even understand the nature of the problem?

The boiled down version of this phenomenon -- which I will call Leander's Law of Serial Nerfing -- goes like this:

If you have to nerf something three times in a row, you're telling everyone that you haven't understood the problem.

Or alternatively: ♫ Nerfing twice must suffice ♫. Note (ha) that this does not apply as strictly to buffs, which elicit positive emotions in players. When it comes to improving a ship, a cautious multi-stage approach is generally applauded. On the other hand, if a ship is over-performing, it is often better to take it out behind the wood-shed and get the grisly business done in one shot. That assumes the would-be shooter understands the problem and knows where to aim, which I suspect is not the case for most Leander Law violations.   

Unpacking Ryūjō's Problems

Unfortunately, we don't really have any publicly available data that breaks down the recent performances of the Japanese carrier in context with her Tier 6 brethren. All we're able to say is that she tends to sit towards the top of the T6 CV rankings for all player groups, usually right below the un-nerfable monster Erich Loewenhardt and the now thrice-nerfed monster Béarn.¹ Given that these stats incorporate three years of aerial dominance after the re-work, I don't think anyone was surprised when the torpedo bombers were toned down in the 0.11.8 update. But now that we're on the third torpedo bomber nerf with no end in sight, I am disinclined to believe that they're the sole source of her overperformance. Some other potential problem areas:

• Stealth: The Ryūjō has best in class concealment at 9.6km ship spotting and 6.8km aerial spotting. A smart carrier player can use this massive advantage to stay close to the battle-line and keep travel times minimal. It also decreases the likelihood that they get spotted and focused by the enemy team, increasing longevity and battle impact.
• Plane Speed: the Torpedo Bombers are the second fastest at the tier and the Dive Bombers are the third fastest. In combination with the extremely stealthy hull, it is not a stretch to say that Ryūjō can achieve best in class cycle times. It also means that she has higher late game impact if the target is far away than most other T6 carriers.
• Matchup vs. DDs: There is an strong correlation between the WR of a carrier and their ability to hurt destroyers reliably. Looking at the WR ranking of T6 CVs, the Béarn (skip bombers), Loewenhardt (dive bombers), and Ark Royal (carpet bombers) are all extremely effective vs. small botes. Right up there is (was?) the Ryūjō, which has a powerful tool to donk DDs in form of fast, hard-hitting torps.
• Matchup vs. Cruisers: Where high-tier cruisers can have the plane-chewing combination of a large bubble, good long-range DPS, abundant flak, and a DefAA consumable, their Tier 6 counterparts are generally limited to one or two of these virtues (see chart below). In practice that means the class struggles to defend itself and/or others against aerial predation; a good Ryūjō player can evade their anti-air and do massive damage with torps and/or rockets.
• Matchup vs. Battleships: The same lack of across-the-board fly-swatting competence that plagues T6 cruisers also affects the BBs. Despite the Japanese airplanes having lowish HP across the board, there aren't many battleships at Tier 6 that are straight up untouchable. As consequence of this lackluster AA, Ryūjō captain builds can afford to forego Enhanced Aircraft Armor (anti-flak damage) and invest in Proximity Fuze (torpedo belt negation), Bomber Flight Control (Dive Bomber speed), or other offensive/fighter skills.   

Spoiler

A napkin analysis of T6 Cruiser and Battleship Anti-Air

Rules: Ships get one point for each column in which they are present. All points are summed and ranked in descending order.

Will the nerfs do the job?

Even for me as a non-CV man, I know that the Ryūjō's Torpedo Bombers are her workhorses -- they are uniquely powerful against all three surface classes. Slowing the recharge rate of these planes in combination with reducing the torpedo alpha is not an insignificant blow. One way to quantify this change is to look at the potential torpedo damage/minute that T6 plane factories can crank out (see chart below). Where the Japanese carrier used to sit towards the very top of this statistic, with a massive gap between herself and 4th place Furious, she has now moved much closer to the midfield. The nerf also re-values the planes on deck that the game gifts you to start the battle. Where before Ryūjō was very average for her tier in how much production time they represented, the re-balance makes them among the most precious, which is particularly punishing to weaker CV-players.

Spoiler

Theoretical Tier 6 Carrier Torpedo Bomber Damage Generation

(ranked in descending order)

TB Damage Generation = (60/Base Regen)*Torpedo Alpha

TB Production on Deck = (TBs on deck * Base Regen)/60

Maybe a better approach would be to look at what characterizes a good carrier player and use that lens to to evaluate the Ryūjō's balance changes. In my experience -- watching purple CV-players go to work, as well as being on the receiving end of their gifts -- some traits stand out, including but not limited to:

• Value: They optimize the trade-off between flight time, target value, and likelihood of doing (spotting) damage.
• Hull: They maximize the risk-reward involved in forward hull positioning, getting their cycle-times as low as is safely possible.
• Hitting DDs: They can hit most destroyers in most situations with most ordinances. 
• Re-dropping: They are experts at setting up targets for cross-drops and/or forcing them to turn broadside to their allies.
• Dive Bombing: They can reliably maximize their chance of getting citadels on a variety of different targets (cruisers and BBs).
• Avoiding Flak: They generally laugh at flak, taking only take the minimum necessary damage when dropping targets.
• Fighters: They understand where/when to drop fighters for the purpose of spotting and/or defense.

I struggle to see where the lower torpedo alpha and the longer torpedo bomber regen will significantly dent a top-level CV player's ability to dominate in these categories. Given the general uselessness of T6 DD anti-air, multiple drops with the second-fastest aerial torps at the tier are very much possible, and a 5000 damage hit is still about a third of their health. With the second-highest plane speed and best-in-tier detection remaining unchanged, the cycle times will still be excellent. The only scenario where I would see a noticeable increase in difficulty would be in Tier 7 and Tier 8 matches where the forced attrition of AA-DPS will eat up planes, regardless of pilot skill. 

Conclusion

Auto-Fail: third nerf in a row to the Ryūjō's torpedo bombers violates Leander's Law of Serial Nerfing. The problem has obviously not been sufficiently understood. 

Spoiler

Methinks the incredibly stealthy hull is the problem, followed by the ease with which good players can hit hapless DDs with torps. Neither of those things have anything to do with torpedo alpha or plane regen. 

AI interpretation of what is happening to the Ryūjō.

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Hayate (T10)
Main battery reload time decreased: 4s -> 3.7s
Torpedo Reload Booster consumable moved to a separate slot.

There are some ships that can't seem to evade the bi-monthly bonk-hammer beatings. Then there are the forgotten children, conceived in confusion, buried at birth in the dustbin of history. Hayate hit the triple-bingo when it came to bad luck: she was released one patch after -- and for the same price -- as the incredibly broken Småland; unlike with the Swedish DD, the designers inexplicably skewed hyper-conservative in her design, which limited her attractiveness further; and she arrived just after the introduction of the resource-sink-tastic Research Bureau, meaning she only ended up bought by turbo-whales (like yours truly) with oodles of FXP laying around.

Since her release in patch 0.9.3.1 in spring of 2020, few have gathered cobwebs longer and harder than the Hayate. Despite a deeply mediocre statistical performance,² she waited in vain for buffs. Eventually she was moved from her oubliette in the tech tree to the armory, where from 0.12.4 onwards she was available for 238,000 coal. Now, almost four years after release, she is finally getting some love. 

General-purpose Shima?

To understand where the Hayate came from and what she is trying to be, we need to start with the Shimakaze. The fan-favorite Japanese destroyer has endured as one of the premier torpedo boats of her tier since the earliest days of the game. At the same time, the Shima pays a high price for her specialization, particularly in that she is second-worst-in-tier for both health pool and HE DPM. The Hayate, then, was an attempt to make more of a generalist out of the Japanese torpedo boat design; a Swiss-Army-Knife in destroyer form (see chart below). 

In order to achieve a more versatile IJN DD, the developers increased the HP pool by 14% to a more middle-of-the-road 20,800 and lopped ~30% off the base reload to have the guns go pew pew every 4 seconds. In exchange, the Hayate had to make due with two-thirds of the Shima's torpedo output as well as a much slower, clunkier, and easier-to-spot hull. The wild-card added to the mix was an optional Torpedo Reload Booster which could be substituted for the smoke, as with the Kagerō and Yūgumo. At the time of release, the Hayate's reload boosted 20-torpedo-salvo was the largest in the game.

Spoiler

Hayate thus became a fringe member of the "Nasty Boys" -- a club of destroyers that all have 7.5km-ish base concealment and around 200k base HE DPM (see chart below). Make no mistake, that's an awesome club to be a part of, but the problem is that those two metrics are the bare minimum you need to get past the bouncer.³ Once you get in the door you'd better have brought some tools because these guys are stacked:

• Småland: 7.5km Radar, Repair Party, Emergency Engine Boost, 12km fast torpedoes, good AA
• Vampire II: 5km hydro, Crawl Smoke, built-in prop mod + engine boost, 12km single fire torpedoes
• F. Sherman: 324k SAP DPM, 5km Hydro, American Smoke, Defensive AA
• Harugumo: 30mm HE Pen, TRB on 6x 12km torps, IJN smoke, engine boost, good AA.
• Daring: Repair Party, Pop Smokes, 10km single-fire torpedoes, improved AP pen angles, built-in prop mod
• Halland: Repair Party, 15km fast torpedoes, best-in-tier AA
• Gearing: American Smoke, fantastic 16.5km torpedoes, good AA.     
• Lüshun: 5.5km Hydro, zombie heal, 11km Deepwater torps
• ...
• Hayate: TRB on 10x 12km torps, IJN smoke, engine boost.

All of the other members of this exclusive club have outstanding advantages in some department, whether it be vision-control (radar, hydro, smokes), mobility (built-in prop, emergency boost), survivability (repair party, AA), teamplay (long smoke, hydro), and/or torpedoes (long range, high speed). The Hayate just brings bog standard kit to the table, with the exception of the TRB. That one consumable better be able to do some heavy lifting, because that's just about all that she has that is special.

Spoiler

Tier 10 DD High School Social Map

 

As the chart above hopefully indicates, the DPM buff moved the Hayate closer to the knot of stealthy DPM DDs comprised of Gearing, Daring. and Halland. 

A brief digression on the Torpedo Reload Booster

Is the Torpedo Reload Booster a strong enough tool to justify the Hayate's place in this group of super-versatile gunboats? Well, it's definitely much more of a conversation now that it has been given its own consumable slot, rather than requiring a player to give up smoke. It means that, roughly every four minutes, every Hayate has the option of doubling one of the most powerful torp spreads among T10 DDs.⁴ It is a consumable that opens up some interesting tactical options for cunning DD-captains, including but not limited to:

• Early torps: pop TRB at the start of the match and flood a cap with torps before the enemy DD expects there to be any.
• Instant punish: Spam torps normally but hold TRB in reserve until enemy reacts to them with a punish-able move.
• Impossible corner: Hold off a host of enemies with the knowledge that they can't just bait torps and trade 1-for-1.  

While these are interesting scenarios to contemplate, they can be quite rare. What is more, the effectiveness of the TRB is also determined in large part by the munition that it is helping to reload faster, namely the The Type 93 mod 3 torpedo. Looking at the numbers, it does appear to be a fearsome fish, doing 23,767 damage apiece -- the second-highest in the game -- which will make even the thickest torpedo belts cry. To balance it out, however, the developer has given it a 1.7km spotting distance on a good-but-not-great 67kts base speed, resulting in a 9.45s reaction time -- among the worst at its tier.⁵ That makes them extremely target and context dependent. The recipient should ideally:

• not be expecting torpedoes;
• not have any way of spotting torpedoes early (hydro, allies);
• not be in a ship that has good short-area mobility, and;
• not be in a position to make drastic maneuvers.

Thus Torpedo Reload Booster often looks scarier on paper than in practice, and I believe this is a lesson that WG, too, has been learning over the years. When TRB was first introduced in the very early days⁶ of the game, it was treated as a powerful tool which necessitated significant sacrifice. The ships that received the booster either had to give up a consumable (Shiratsuyu, Kagerō, Yūgumo: smoke; Huanghe: Hydro) or were at some sort of firepower disadvantage that required compensation (Akizuki, Kitakaze, Harugumo: only 1 torp launcher; Monaghan B, Yūdachi: abysmal gun power).

This 'handle-with-care' perception was likely reinforced by the Shiratsuyu debacle, where her separate-slot TRB was scapegoated for her excessive effectiveness upon release.⁷ Looking back, it would appear more accurate to say it was a perfect storm of excellent concealment, the fantastic type 90 mod. 1 torpedo, and the permanently-top-tier matchmaking that Tier 7s enjoyed at the time -- supercharged by the first real funny button in the game.   

As the years went by, however, the criteria for who was to receive a TRB were markedly loosened. By the time we saw the introduction of Pan-Asian super-light cruisers in update 0.11.0, the developer obviously no longer felt the consumable needed to be handled like weapons-grade uranium. How else to explain the fact that the twenty-torpedo Jinan was released with a sci-fi-esque Insta-Torpedo-Doublo-Matic 5000? Shortly afterwards, in update 0.11.4, the T8-T10 Pan-Asian DDs received a separate-slot torpedo reload booster -- for free -- no strings attached. As if in final repudiation of all lessons learned by the Shiratsuyu, the T7 Tashkent '39 was released in 0.12.3 with smoke and TRB in separate slots and arguably the best torpedoes yet seen at the tier. To me, this was a tacit admission by the developer that Torpedo Reload Booster has a very limited impact on the game. It is the sheep in wolf's clothing of WoWS consumables.

Spoiler

AI generated impression of Torpedo Reload Booster.

To conclude this digression on Torpedo Reload Booster: it is a highly situational consumable that is dependent on a lot of factors to be successful. First among these is the torpedo which is being fired; occasionally re-doubling a salvo of easily spotted, slow-ish fish is not a reliable advantage. Secondly, the captain needs to get his ship into position to execute a successful torpedo strike, which is limited by the stealth and speed of the DD platform. Finally, the enemy must not have the ability to counter the torpedoes through early warning and/or dodging. In other words, for the TRB to really show value, a lot of things have to go right. As history has shown, the developer doesn't consider it to be much of a power-spike anymore.⁸

Another reload buff...

I have already kvetched at length about how DPM buffs are over-used and erode variety. However, in this case I think the outcome will be worse still:  it will stunt -- perhaps even wholly arrest -- Hayate's progress towards finding a happy place. 

As we saw in the charts above, the reload buff pushes the the Japanese DD more towards the center of the "Nasty Boys" club. That is an incredible group of ships with an awesome array of tools. To anyone with functioning eyes, the Hayate obviously doesn't belong there. She barely has the reload and stealth to qualify, and beyond that ... very little. I contend the Hayate would have been much happier among the "Normies" with middle-of-the-road DPM but some other cool feature(s) going for her. These could be something like: 

• Submarine Surveillance: We don't yet have DDs that can properly hunt subs -- thematically the Hayate could join Zao and Yodo in a useful niche within the meta. 
• Hydro: the Harekaze II already pioneered 5km hydro on a Japanese DD. Hydro would reinforce the Swiss-Army Knife flavor while reducing the number of torp hits suffered by the Hayate's bloaty hull.  
• 15km torps: Let's face it, 12km torps are the bare minimum at Tier 10 these days. More interesting and no less balanced would the option to run the 15km torps found on Yodo. 
• Torp Swap: Yamagiri, Dalarna, and upcoming Minegumo show the gameplay potential of being able to hot-swap between torp range/speed/alpha. Having both short-range and long range torps available at the push of a button would be very interesting.

I fear that the increase in reload has consigned the Hayate to a purgatory of being just good enough. Her guns and her increased torpedo output will pump up the damage numbers, which will create the illusion that she has arrived in a good place. She hasn't. She is still the spoon in a drawer full of knives. And now it might be another four years before the folks in charge realizes she's been in the wrong place all along.  

Conclusion

Moving Torpedo Reload Booster to a separate slot was the right move, but history shows it probably won't change much. Buffing the DPM will likely lock the Hayate into a cycle of semi-mediocrity from which it will be difficult to escape. 

Spoiler

AI rendition of the Hayate amongst the other members of the "Nasty Boys" club.

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Sekiryu (T11)
Tactical Torpedo Bombers Torpedo damage reduced: 9333 -> 7500
Tactical Attack Aircraft rocket damage reduced: 3150 -> 2850
Tactical Attack Aircraft rocket fire chance reduced: 14% -> 12%

Long-time readers will know what I think of Tier 11: it was -- and continues to be -- a mistake. In order to make the new tier of 'super'-ships appealing to players (and function properly as a credit sink), the developer has had to repeatedly break some of the fundamental covenants between players and game. In today's episode of "I am altering the deal, pray I don't alter it any further" we look at just one aspect of how T11 aircraft carriers are exempt from rules that used to bind their lower tier brethren: tactical squadrons.

Tactical Elephant in the Room

For those that haven't dabbled in T11 CVs, we should start with a quick overview of the Sekiryu's kit as compared to its immediate predecessor, the Hakuryū. It might surprise you, as it did me, that both carriers have the exact same standard plane loadout.⁹ They have the exact same number of each plane on deck, same size squads, same plane characteristics, same munition characteristics. Setting aside some differences in the hull¹⁰ and in the patrol fighter consumables, the biggest and most obvious upgrade when moving to Tier 11 is being able to access to two new tactical squadrons: tactical rocket planes and tactical torpedo bombers. 

And boy do they bring some heat to the table: some of the highest top speeds in the game plus the ability to regenerate like a consumable rather than a normal plane squadron. When we observe an almost +50k/battle difference in average damage between elite Hakuryū players and elite Sekiryu players, it will likely be in large part due to tactical squads (see chart below). 

Spoiler

Damage of T10 and T11 Carriers among 10% of players, NA Server

 

The Rhythm of Abuse

Let's talk about speed first. The Sekiryu's tactical rockets are able to get up to 346kts and sustain that speed for up to 30s. How far could you go in one 30s boost? Well, if we plug those numbers into the conversion formula given on the wiki for calculating speed and distances in game, we get something like this:

Distance (km) / (Velocity (kts) * 0.0026) = Time (s) 

Distance / (346 * 0.0026) = 30s

Distance = 26.98km  

Given that all high tier maps in the game are either (42km)² or (48km)² it means a Sekiryu tactical rocket squad can cross more than half the map in the time it takes a battleship to reload once. That is particularly crazy when we consider that the fastest "regular" planes in the game are the rockets on the Midway, which can hold their maximum of 216kts for only 5 seconds at a time. And this is only one example: if we look at the top speeds of all the squads on T6-T11 aircraft carriers (see charts below), we can see that the T11 tactical squads sit head and shoulders above the rest.

Spoiler

How does this insane speed 'break' the game? It does so by upsetting what I will call the Rhythm of Abuse. From Tier 4 onwards, players are conditioned to expect aerial victimization to happen at a certain pace; a cycle time mostly dictated by plane speed and carrier hull placement. Eventually surface ship players come to understand how to use maneuverability, survivability (DCP and Repair), and anti-CV tools (Sectoring, DefAA, Smoke) to best negate the unpleasantness coming their way. There is a bargain being struck here between the game and the player: if you learn to listen to the music, you can sorta dance along and avoid the worst of the downbeat.

As folks move up the tiers this pace will tighten up incrementally until we reach Tier 8-10, which is generally home to the fastest planes and the shortest cycle times. But as the charts above show, this is a gradual climb, as even the speediest regular squads in the class are only a few percent zippier than their tier-mates. The developer understood that, as with all things unpalatable, it is best to slowly boil the frog.

Spoiler

AI representation of how World of Warships acclimates surface ship players to aerial abuse across the tiers.

I don't know what the button-shaped cookies are all about.

Enter the T11 tactical squads that can suddenly go 30% faster than a normal rocket squad and sustain it for six times longer. They can cross the map in a heartbeat and penetrate an AA bubble before the flak even starts to spawn. If the CV player notices you've put out a fire, they can mail you a super-sonic DoT-starter-kit set to arrive just as the Damage Control goes on cooldown. Like Amazon Prime but for palliative care, no ship on death's door can expect to wait very long for a final 'get-well' package to arrive. 

Understandably, this makes people very upset. Most veteran players have come to accept the predatory classes as the cost of playing the game they enjoy, and have learned to live with paying the "CV Tax" as best they can. With T11 tactical squads the developer continually upends all of that conditioning, undoing the thousands of games it took to become inured to the unfun.

All-Consuming Squads

The second design-feature of tactical squads that makes them so effective at incurring resentment is that they are consumables. Unlike all other 'regular' squads in the game, shooting down the planes of a tactical squad in no way impacts the CV's ability to deploy them in future. Once used, they simply go on cooldown, hatching anew every two or three minutes.    

It is hard to overstate how damaging this mechanic is Rhythm of Abuse. Part of what makes the demented dance between plane-factory and pin-cushion tolerable is the knowledge, on the part of the victim, that skillful play will deprive their tormentor of resources in the future. A well-timed AA-sectoring and artful dodge feel good because the surface ship player knows that the next wave will have to be weaker, either in number or in weapon-type. This is another part of the player/game bargain: do well in this wave, and next round becomes easier. 

A tactical squad profoundly violates this arrangement. Shooting down its planes doesn't change the number that will be deployed in future. The regular squads will be coming as hard as ever. The best a player can do is dodge or destroy the tac squad to waste the handful of seconds it needed to blink across the map. There is no winning; only least-bad outcomes. This is not good game design.  

Will the nerfs be enough?

I have no idea. Nerfing the damage and DoT-starting ability of the Sekiryu's tactical squads is a good start. At the very least, there is now a trade-off to be had for their incredible speed and disposable-ness: less damage. If these misguided creatures are here to stay, then at the very minimum there should be some disadvantage to using them.

Conclusion

Nerfing tactical squads is a step in the right direction, as they break foundational bargains established between player and game. However, I am doubtful that a slightly smaller damage potential will outweigh their incredible upsides.

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Final Thoughts

Digging into the game balance issues of aircraft carriers as a non-CV-enjoyer isn't easy, but in the end I am glad I did; having Leander's Law and the Rhythm of Abuse in our conceptual toolkit will be useful going forward. Twelve ships down, twenty-seven to go. Hopefully the upcoming carriers will be slightly easier now that we've broken the ice. Thank you for reading ❤️ 

 

 

 

Footnotes

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¹ NA Server, random battles, all players/Top 10%, https://na.wows-numbers.com/ship/4183799504,Ryujo/, accessed February 13th, 2024.

² NA Server, random battles, all players/Top 10%, https://na.wows-numbers.com/ship/3760076496,Hayate/, accessed February 15th, 2024.

³ In case you're wondering, the bouncer is a Druid running Cunningham.

⁴ Hayate is second only to Shimakaze among the Tier 10 DDs in terms of torpedo salvo weight.

⁵ The Shimakaze's 20km torpedoes with their 2.5km spotting distance have a 15 second reaction window, a relic of the early days of the game where the matchmaker was filled with them.

⁶ The introduction of TRB is a tricky thing to pin down. Some parts of the wiki indicate that it was in 0.5.3, but the changelog doesn't reflect this. At the latest it was in the game by 0.5.15, which saw the introduction of the Harugumo line.

⁷ See the chapter on the Yūdachi for a more in-depth discussion.

⁸ Interestingly, the Russian version of the game has chosen only to move the TRB to a separate slot, and not to buff the gun reload. We will see if they revisit her in the upcoming months or whether the TRB slot shift was enough. See the Russian DevBlog for their 0.12.8 balance changes (recommendation: use Chrome + translate).

⁹ A quick comparison of squad setups on the Sekiryu and Hakuryū:

Spoiler

Squadron Setups for the T11 and T10 Japanese Aircraft Carriers

¹⁰ The primary differences between the Sekiryu and Hakuryū hulls are as follows:

Spoiler

While the Sekiryu hull represents a clear upgrade over the Hakuryū, none of these metrics explain the almost +50k damage per game that top players can achieve using the T11.

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[Daniel_Allan_Clark]

Ryujo balancing is emblematic of WG staff's baffling decision to refuse to listen to CV mains who actually understand the class.

WG apparently wants Ryujo to be the donkey of the line to encourage freeXP use...much like Implacable is for the Royal Navy line...but Ryujo has always been very strong.

At present, Hakuryu is the donkey of the line...which makes no actual sense.

The nerfs are WGs flailing about trying to figure out how to make Ryujo less attractive...yet demonstrating rather conclusively that they still have no idea what makes CVs good or bad.

Heck, take CV releases....every single CV release since the rework has featured nerfs to the tier 10 or 11 after the early access period ended and the likelihood of use of in game currency boosters to get to the ship have slowed down.

WG is essentially consistently operating CV releases as a bait and switch exercise.

Edited February 17 by Daniel_Allan_Clark

[iDuckman]

Amazing analysis.  And approaching LWM levels of composition.  Thanks, it's an enjoyable read.

 

Edited February 17 by iDuckman

[Daniel_Allan_Clark]

I keep wondering why WG hasn't touched things like plane speed more often when balancing tech tree CVs.

IMO, a good amount of actual game balance could be achieved by making the planes a bit slower with longer time to Regen.

[Wolfswetpaws]

4 hours ago, torino2dc said:

Sekiryu (T11)
<snip for brevity>

For those that haven't dabbled in T11 CVs, we should start with a quick overview of the Sekiryu's kit as compared to its immediate predecessor, the Hakuryū. It might surprise you, as it did me, that both carriers have the exact same standard plane loadout.⁹ They have the exact same number of each plane on deck, same size squads, same plane characteristics, same munition characteristics. Setting aside some differences in the hull¹⁰ and in the patrol fighter consumables, the biggest and most obvious upgrade when moving to Tier 11 is being able to access to two new tactical squadrons: tactical rocket planes and tactical torpedo bombers. 

And boy do they bring some heat to the table: some of the highest top speeds in the game plus the ability to regenerate like a consumable rather than a normal plane squadron. When we observe an almost +50k/battle difference in average damage between elite Hakuryū players and elite Sekiryu players, it will likely be in large part due to tactical squads (see chart below). 

The tactical squadrons seem "fragile" in my experience.
I was sailing the Sekiryu, this afternoon, on the PTS in a division with @Ensign Cthulhu and @SolitudeFreak, and I mentioned my impression during our battle-chat.
They're easily shot-down by flak and other AA.
They're also not "nimble", and are slow to maneuver for an attack on a target.  Most of the time my tactical squadrons were shot down or missed.
Partly the missing is because of my own inexperience. 
That said, the tactical planes don't fly in a manner that is as "user friendly" as the non-tactical planes, in my opinion.
When combined with their fragility, I think they're a disappointment.

 

[Wolfswetpaws]

3 hours ago, Daniel_Allan_Clark said:

Ryujo balancing is emblematic of WG staff's baffling decision to refuse to listen to CV mains who actually understand the class.

WG apparently wants Ryujo to be the donkey of the line to encourage freeXP use...much like Implacable is for the Royal Navy line...but Ryujo has always been very strong.

At present, Hakuryu is the donkey of the line...which makes no actual sense.

The nerfs are WGs flailing about trying to figure out how to make Ryujo less attractive...yet demonstrating rather conclusively that they still have no idea what makes CVs good or bad.

Heck, take CV releases....every single CV release since the rework has featured nerfs to the tier 10 or 11 after the early access period ended and the likelihood of use of in game currency boosters to get to the ship have slowed down.

WG is essentially consistently operating CV releases as a bait and switch exercise.

What do you mean by "donkey of the line"?

[Wolfswetpaws]

4 hours ago, torino2dc said:

Maybe a better approach would be to look at what characterizes a good carrier player and use that lens to to evaluate the Ryūjō's balance changes. In my experience -- watching purple CV-players go to work, as well as being on the receiving end of their gifts -- some traits stand out, including but not limited to:

• Value: They optimize the trade-off between flight time, target value, and likelihood of doing (spotting) damage.
• Hull: They maximize the risk-reward involved in forward hull positioning, getting their cycle-times as low as is safely possible.
• Hitting DDs: They can hit most destroyers in most situations with most ordinances. 
• Re-dropping: They are experts at setting up targets for cross-drops and/or forcing them to turn broadside to their allies.
• Dive Bombing: They can reliably maximize their chance of getting citadels on a variety of different targets (cruisers and BBs).
• Avoiding Flak: They generally laugh at flak, taking only take the minimum necessary damage when dropping targets.
• Fighters: They understand where/when to drop fighters for the purpose of spotting and/or defense.

When I read this ^^^^, I got the impression that it merely highlights that good play, with a popular CV, may be skewing the balance scales into producing spreadsheet numbers that are less about the balance of the ship in question and more about the competence of the player in question.

But, they can't nerf players.  So WG/WOWs nerfs the ships, eh?

Edited to add:  Anyone remember when the Hosho had squadrons which could drop two torpedoes per drop?  
It's been a few years since that "balanz" nerf was implemented.

Edited February 17 by Wolfswetpaws

[Daniel_Allan_Clark]

1 hour ago, Wolfswetpaws said:

Edited to add:  Anyone remember when the Hosho had squadrons which could drop two torpedoes per drop?  
It's been a few years since that "balanz" nerf was implemented.

Hosho with two torp drops was BRUTALLY overpowered.

I remember showing my father the game and effortlessly getting high kill counts...basically I could sink all the ships on the enemy team if given enough time.

The ships damage output was insane.

[Ensign Cthulhu]

2 hours ago, Wolfswetpaws said:

Anyone remember when the Hosho had squadrons which could drop two torpedoes per drop?  

Right after I finished grinding her out at 68,000 XP for Ryujo instead of 40,000 like it is now. 😛 A change I actually advocated for - the XP reduction, not the torpedoes.

6 hours ago, torino2dc said:

If you have to nerf something three times in a row, you're telling everyone that you haven't understood the problem.

Contrary viewpoint: if you're applying multiple nerfs to reach the desired endpoint, it shows you're taking it carefully rather than going overboard.

I'd like to know how far you are up each of the CV trees.

6 hours ago, torino2dc said:

Digging into the game balance issues of aircraft carriers as a non-CV-enjoyer

...is fraught with peril. You risk being seen as someone who talks about something of which they have an insufficiently broad perspective. 

6 hours ago, torino2dc said:

 Rhythm of Abuse.

The use of this phrase does not, in my opinion, paint you as an impartial or unbiased observer. 

 

6 hours ago, torino2dc said:

To understand where the Hayate came from and what she is trying to be, we need to start with the Shimakaze. The fan-favorite Japanese destroyer has endured as one of the premier torpedo boats of her tier since the earliest days of the game. At the same time, the Shima pays a high price for her specialization, particularly in that she is second-worst-in-tier for both health pool and HE DPM. The Hayate, then, was an attempt to make more of a generalist out of the Japanese torpedo boat design; a Swiss-Army-Knife in destroyer form (see chart below). 

I wish people wouldn't conflate Hayate with Shimakaze. She's nothing like it. She's a beefed up Yugumo, which if she wasn't so visually-handicapped would be grossly OP for something with her weapon fit, especially after the buffs.

 

6 hours ago, torino2dc said:

These could be something like: 

These would represent a change to the ship so fundamental that it wouldn't be what its buyers bought any more. Harekaze II loses a lot to get her hydro, and in my opinion it's probably too much. Submarine Surveillance on a surface ship only works if she has the range on her ASW to whack said submarine, which no destroyer in the game currently has. Wanting longer range torpedoes is all very well, but the minimum range number you quote smacks of an unspoken desire to be able to torpedo Russian cruisers and Brisbane in open water from outside their radar range. .

If that's the case, then the only balancing factor against you is CV (which is why they're in the game in the first place) or submarine spotting (and it's possible that this is at least one of the reasons why THEY are in the game). And with CV spotting set to be dealt a major blow in the near future - which is something you haven't addressed at all in the chapter on Sekiryu¹ - then it potentially comes down just to radar cruisers and subs to sniff you out and make you vulnerable.

6 hours ago, torino2dc said:

turbo-whales with more FXP than sense.

Would you perhaps care to be a little less insulting toward your prospective audience? Among other things, it's a great way to get people who'd hoped for a reasoned and balanced discussion on a ship they spent a LOT of resources to obtain, to decide that they'd rather not be the targets of your contempt.

You hit it out of the park with the Italian review, but this one feels to me more like Casey at the Bat. 

 

1. The proposed inability of a CV to spot for itself unless it's actually in the attack run will immediately rob the Sekiryu's fast attack squadrons of much of their power, specifically if it's racing across the map to attack a target which isn't spotted by friendly surface ships. Even if this is changed to a much-reduced level of spotting - e.g. comparable to the spotting deficiency the Bearn suffers under - the jet attack squadrons are liable to overrun their target and miss the strike. 

 

Edited February 17 by Ensign Cthulhu

[Daniel_Allan_Clark]

25 minutes ago, Ensign Cthulhu said:

I wish people wouldn't conflate Hayate with Shimakaze. She's nothing like it. She's a beefed up Yugumo, which if she wasn't so visually-handicapped would be grossly OP for something with her weapon fit, especially after the buffs.

I never found Hayate horribly underpowered without the TRB...

Having both that and smoke is almost like a new ship, IMO.

[Ensign Cthulhu]

10 minutes ago, Daniel_Allan_Clark said:

I never found Hayate horribly underpowered without the TRB...

Having both that and smoke is almost like a new ship, IMO.

I have the feeling that Torino wants her to be a God-slaying weapon of doom, which makes me wonder whether he himself has her and how he obtained her (I got her with FXP, but I think the move to coal made her price much more reasonable and I was very pleased when WG announced the change). 

[Frostbow]

10 hours ago, torino2dc said:

If you have to nerf something three times in a row, you're telling everyone that you haven't understood the problem.

Correct.

Or, Wargaming has understood the problem, only that it was previously hesitant to fully implement it out of an abundance of accommodating or protecting a certain group of its player base.

3 hours ago, Ensign Cthulhu said:

I have the feeling that Torino wants her to be a God-slaying weapon of doom, which makes me wonder whether he himself has her and how he obtained her (I got her with FXP, but I think the move to coal made her price much more reasonable and I was very pleased when WG announced the change). 

A "feeling" in this context is far from factual. Wait, I recall reading more or less the same line you wrote over at the old NA forum. When LWM published her review of the San Diego, you also wrote that you have a feeling LWM wanted that ship to be (insert your favorite impertinent allegation). 

Can you not respond to Torino's (or any reviewer's) detailed and factual review with your own detailed and factual counterpoints? How about showing us how you play the Hayate in solo Random Battles to prove, if you have, any and all "counterpoints" you seem to suggest that you have? 

11 hours ago, torino2dc said:

she arrived just after the introduction of the resource-sink-tastic Research Bureau, meaning she only ended up bought by turbo-whales with more FXP than sense.

I remember reading the official article on the game's website about the introduction of the Hayate. I said to myself, that is quite an amount of FXP that will take me quite a bit of time to earn. I then went to the game to play the usual Co-op battles, and lo and behold, there was a Hayate on our team! They probably were sitting on mountains of FXP, to be honest.

4 hours ago, Ensign Cthulhu said:

Would you perhaps care to be a little less insulting toward your prospective audience? Among other things, it's a great way to get people who'd hoped for a reasoned and balanced discussion on a ship they spent a LOT of resources to obtain, to decide that they'd rather not be the targets of your contempt.

Are you insulted? Stating the obvious is not insulting, as there really are whales in World of Warships with more resources than competence. And I don't think it was insulting. On the contrary, candor is the breeze of fresh air that we all need. 

 

[torino2dc]

On 2/17/2024 at 7:47 PM, iDuckman said:

Amazing analysis.  And approaching LWM levels of composition.  Thanks, it's an enjoyable read.

To be in the same conversation is incredible praise, thank you.

I don't think anyone will reach her level of devotion and craftsmanship, but hopefully I can make my own niche that is enjoyable and informative.

[torino2dc]

14 hours ago, Wolfswetpaws said:

Anyone remember when the Hosho had squadrons which could drop two torpedoes per drop?

Hōshō is a great example of a nerf done right. They identified the problem (double torpedoes were too effective), took her out back, and got the unpleasant affair all done in one shot. She hasn't seen any significant changes since.

 

[Itwastuesday]

16 hours ago, Daniel_Allan_Clark said:

I keep wondering why WG hasn't touched things like plane speed more often when balancing tech tree CVs.

IMO, a good amount of actual game balance could be achieved by making the planes a bit slower with longer time to Regen.

Yes, plus it would lessen the misery factor of playing vs. them (having no time to do anything before being spotted/targeted again). 

[torino2dc]

12 hours ago, Ensign Cthulhu said:

19 hours ago, torino2dc said:

Digging into the game balance issues of aircraft carriers as a non-CV-enjoyer

...is fraught with peril. You risk being seen as someone who talks about something of which they have an insufficiently broad perspective. 

As I said at the outset of the article, I am not a CV-enjoyer and I don't pretend to understand the class from the inside. So I do the best I can with what I have, which is extensive experience in the three major classes as well as access to a clan full of purple CV players that I can pepper with questions. If a CV-player would like to offer a more detailed look at how the balance changes affect the moment-to-moment gameplay, they are free to do so. 

12 hours ago, Ensign Cthulhu said:

19 hours ago, torino2dc said:

 Rhythm of Abuse.

The use of this phrase does not, in my opinion, paint you as an impartial or unbiased observer. 

I am not an impartial or unbiased observer, and I'm pretty sure I have never claimed to be one. I have lots of pretty strong opinions (e.g. about T11, about reload buffs/nerfs, etc.), which -- in theory -- is why people are here. 

Regarding Rhythm of Abuse -- I stand by that concept. Players learn how to dance to the music and minimize the frustration it causes. I don't think I can put it better than I did in the article: I have become "inured to the unfun" of being on the receiving end of a carrier.    

12 hours ago, Ensign Cthulhu said:

I'd like to know how far you are up each of the CV trees.

At time of writing I have all the T10s + T11s except the Essex. My stats are viewable here, though I am not sure a "do you have enough of x (PR/WR/experience) to have an opinion" is a productive line of discussion. If my arguments don't hold water, then please deconstruct them.  

12 hours ago, Ensign Cthulhu said:

I wish people wouldn't conflate Hayate with Shimakaze.

I didn't conflate the two. I said we need to understand the Shimakaze as a departure point for the Hayate's design, as the developer was exploring different flavors of Tier 10 IJN destroyers.

While Hayate and Yugumo share certain features (option for TRB, two torp launchers), I don't think it is accurate to say that the Hayate is a Tier 10 Yugumo interpretation. Too many key characteristics are different, most notably the T9's best-in-class stealth. 

13 hours ago, Ensign Cthulhu said:

19 hours ago, torino2dc said:

turbo-whales with more FXP than sense.

Would you perhaps care to be a little less insulting toward your prospective audience?

That is my mistake: there was no way for the audience to know that I was among said turbo-whales who shelled out for Hayate upon release. I re-wrote the phrase to make that a bit clearer.    

 

[torino2dc]

12 hours ago, Ensign Cthulhu said:

I have the feeling that Torino wants her to be a God-slaying weapon of doom

For the record, I am not trying to make the Hayate into a "God-slaying weapon of doom." 

I want to Hayate to be in a happy place, which means that she has a clear purpose, that purpose is useful, and that purpose is not done better elsewhere.

As I laid out in my section on the High School Cliques of T10 destroyers, the Hayate is currently adjacent to a host of really stealthy, high DPM destroyers with lots of tools. To me, it is very obvious that she doesn't belong there. It would be preferable if the developer had chosen not to buff the DPM and instead give her a different advantage, such as one of the ones I listed. 

Right now there is absolutely no reason to play a Hayate. If I want Japanese torpedo spam, I take the Shima. If I want Japanese torpedo power coupled with good gunpower, I take Harugumo. If I want TRB gameplay, then Yueyang is a much better all-around package. If I want a better balance of guns and torpedoes I can run Halland or Gearing or Daring or Lüshun.

12 hours ago, Ensign Cthulhu said:

which makes me wonder whether he himself has her and how he obtained her

Again, this line of argument is really unproductive. I have a Hayate. I do better in her than most. That doesn't change the fact that she is not in a happy place. 

[Wolfswetpaws]

9 hours ago, Frostbow said:

I remember reading the official article on the game's website about the introduction of the Hayate. I said to myself, that is quite an amount of FXP that will take me quite a bit of time to earn. I then went to the game to play the usual Co-op battles, and lo and behold, there was a Hayate on our team! They probably were sitting on mountains of FXP, to be honest.

For me, welcoming the Hayate to my port in exchange for two million FreeXP was a personal endeavor, just to prove to myself that I could do it.
I'm glad to say I was successful.

The recently announced changes (which improve the Hayate) were un-looked-for by me, but are welcome, in my opinion.
That said, I was willing to play the Hayate before the changes and needed a ship for one of my Commanders (to be the Captain of) anyway.
I felt the Hayate was competent, but not over-powered, before the changes.  

As a side thought, is it just me, or is WOWs trying to entice players with "New And Improved!!" marketing hype for ships?
Especially ships that are new enough to be nerfed/buffed and also are obtained via coal or steel or doubloons?

[Wolfswetpaws]

1 hour ago, torino2dc said:

Hōshō is a great example of a nerf done right.

I'll keep it short & sweet.  I disagree.
I feel there's no need for us to elaborate our positions further on that specific point.  We've each said our piece and can move on.  🙂 

[Ensign Cthulhu]

48 minutes ago, torino2dc said:

At time of writing I have all the T10s + T11s except the Essex.

OK, I (unsarcastically) bow to your greater experience on this one. I thought you were one of those never-CV people who thought they could tell the whole world about carriers. My bad.

50 minutes ago, torino2dc said:

While Hayate and Yugumo share certain features (option for TRB, two torp launchers), I don't think it is accurate to say that the Hayate is a Tier 10 Yugumo interpretation.

I still think she's far closer to Yugumo than she is to Shimakaze. TRB or not, that third launcher on Shima makes a hell of a difference. 

37 minutes ago, torino2dc said:

Hayate is currently adjacent to a host of really stealthy, high DPM destroyers with lots of tools. To me, it is very obvious that she doesn't belong there.

But as I see it, the only one whose putting her there is you! This is entirely your classification!

I got Hayate to have a high-tier premium IJN DD to retrain/boost captains in, that I didn't have to pay for, and which I could run in co-op when I wanted to without my credits looking miserable. That's how I classify Hayate; a middle of the road IJN T10 DD that trades some concealment Cf. her cousins for a much better rate of fire.

49 minutes ago, torino2dc said:

If I want TRB gameplay, then Yueyang is a much better all-around package.

Right up until the moment you need to torp a destroyer in her smoke. I've done that enough times to wish Yueyang were capable of it.

50 minutes ago, torino2dc said:

If I want Japanese torpedo power coupled with good gunpower, I take Harugumo.

One rack of six with TRB compared to two racks of five, and Hayate loads 40 seconds faster (with the same torpedoes) in the first place. 

1 hour ago, torino2dc said:

That is my mistake: there was no way for the audience to know that I was among said turbo-whales who shelled out for Hayate upon release.

*sigh* I wish I'd known that. 

I still don't think you can give Hayate what you want without making it an entirely different ship. That being said, you yourself mentioned torpedo hot-swapping in your list of wants, and I have a sneaking suspicion that Minegumo might be the ship you wanted Hayate to become.

[Frostbow]

13 minutes ago, Wolfswetpaws said:

As a side thought, is it just me, or is WOWs trying to entice players with "New And Improved!!" marketing hype for ships?
Especially ships that are new enough to be nerfed/buffed and also are obtained via coal or steel or doubloons?

World of Warships is a business, first and foremost. Marketing hype is and should be expected all the time. 

6 minutes ago, Ensign Cthulhu said:

I thought you were one of those never-CV people who thought they could tell the whole world about carriers. My bad.

You could always ask before making premature statements; but I guess that is not your practice, especially when you rush to defend Wargaming. You once asked another player over at the old NA forum if he has ever played CVs, just because you did not agree with his opinions. That same player was a very good CV player, near unicum to be exact, and his stats (especially his CV stats) were miles ahead from yours. 

[Wolfswetpaws]

6 minutes ago, Frostbow said:

26 minutes ago, Wolfswetpaws said:

As a side thought, is it just me, or is WOWs trying to entice players with "New And Improved!!" marketing hype for ships?
Especially ships that are new enough to be nerfed/buffed and also are obtained via coal or steel or doubloons?

World of Warships is a business, first and foremost. Marketing hype is and should be expected all the time. 

True that.  😉 

::: Offers a toast with a favorite beverage:::  "Cheers" 

[Daniel_Allan_Clark]

Being relentlessly critiqued by EC...

A sure sign that your points are interesting and potentially persuasive...

😉

Edited February 18 by Daniel_Allan_Clark

[Gnirf]

1 hour ago, torino2dc said:

 

That is my mistake: there was no way for the audience to know that I was among said turbo-whales who shelled out for Hayate upon release. I re-wrote the phrase to make that a bit clearer.    

 

For me whales is the description of players with more money than sense. 

But if you play much you also have resources at your disposal, most of my FreeXP have come through play only very indirectly through money i.e. boosters/flags and not conversion.

I have more or less only converted FreeXP for the Missouri (original), the FreeXP were far harder then to get. All other FreeXP ships I have bought more or less on release through my stash.

The reson is simply - there is nothing else to buy. Bought Sicilia f.e. as I had the RB (new FreeXP ships) and no other ship remains. Only in steelships I need to be careful.

One thing that Hayate does well is if you reset lots of IJN DD lines and if you play coop for missions , Hayate works fine as nearly all DDs do.

[YouSatInGum]

On 2/17/2024 at 10:00 AM, torino2dc said:

The Ryūjō's gruelling journey has had an upside: thinking about it has helped clarify my position on nerfs. Hammering down a ship's power level hurts the players who love playing it. Every time such an intervention must be made, the developer is taking out a loan from the Bank of Credibility^TM; the 'benefit-of-the-doubt' lenders among the opinion leaders in the player base. It is very easy to bankrupt the perception that 'the devs know what they're doing' with serial nerfs because the costs of borrowing compound on one another. After the third nerf in a row, the dedicated players rightfully ask: does the developer even understand the nature of the problem?

The boiled down version of this phenomenon -- which I will call Leander's Law of Serial Nerfing -- goes like this:

If you have to nerf something three times in a row, you're telling everyone that you haven't understood the problem.

Or alternatively: ♫ Nerfing twice must suffice ♫. Note (ha) that this does not apply as strictly to buffs, which elicit positive emotions in players. When it comes to improving a ship, a cautious multi-stage approach is generally applauded. On the other hand, if a ship is over-performing, it is often better to take it out behind the wood-shed and get the grisly business done in one shot. That assumes the would-be shooter understands the problem and knows where to aim, which I suspect is not the case for most Leander Law violations.   

Unpacking Ryūjō's Problems

Unfortunately, we don't really have any publicly available data that breaks down the recent performances of the Japanese carrier in context with her Tier 6 brethren. All we're able to say is that she tends to sit towards the top of the T6 CV rankings for all player groups, usually right below the un-nerfable monster Erich Loewenhardt and the now thrice-nerfed monster Béarn.¹

 

Hayate (T10)
Main battery reload time decreased: 4s -> 3.7s
Torpedo Reload Booster consumable moved to a separate slot.

There are some ships that can't seem to evade the bi-monthly bonk-hammer beatings. Then there are the forgotten children, conceived in confusion, buried at birth in the dustbin of history. Hayate hit the triple-bingo when it came to bad luck: she was released one patch after -- and for the same price -- as the incredibly broken Småland; unlike with the Swedish DD, the designers inexplicably skewed hyper-conservative in her design, which limited her attractiveness further; and she arrived just after the introduction of the resource-sink-tastic Research Bureau, meaning she only ended up bought by turbo-whales (like yours truly) with oodles of FXP laying around.

Since her release in patch 0.9.3.1 in spring of 2020, few have gathered cobwebs longer and harder than the Hayate. Despite a deeply mediocre statistical performance,² she waited in vain for buffs. Eventually she was moved from her oubliette in the tech tree to the armory, where from 0.12.4 onwards she was available for 238,000 coal. Now, almost four years after release, she is finally getting some love. 

General-purpose Shima?

To understand where the Hayate came from and what she is trying to be, we need to start with the Shimakaze. The fan-favorite Japanese destroyer has endured as one of the premier torpedo boats of her tier since the earliest days of the game. At the same time, the Shima pays a high price for her specialization, particularly in that she is second-worst-in-tier for both health pool and HE DPM. The Hayate, then, was an attempt to make more of a generalist out of the Japanese torpedo boat design; a Swiss-Army-Knife in destroyer form (see chart below). 

In order to achieve a more versatile IJN DD, the developers increased the HP pool by 14% to a more middle-of-the-road 20,800 and lopped ~30% off the base reload to have the guns go pew pew every 4 seconds. In exchange, the Hayate had to make due with two-thirds of the Shima's torpedo output as well as a much slower, clunkier, and easier-to-spot hull. The wild-card added to the mix was an optional Torpedo Reload Booster which could be substituted for the smoke, as with the Kagerō and Yūgumo. At the time of release, the Hayate's reload boosted 20-torpedo-salvo was the largest in the game.

  Reveal hidden contents

Hayate thus became a fringe member of the "Nasty Boys" -- a club of destroyers that all have 7.5km-ish base concealment and around 200k base HE DPM (see chart below). Make no mistake, that's an awesome club to be a part of, but the problem is that those two metrics are the bare minimum you need to get past the bouncer.³ Once you get in the door you'd better have brought some tools because these guys are stacked:

• Småland: 7.5km Radar, Repair Party, Emergency Engine Boost, 12km fast torpedoes, good AA
• Vampire II: 5km hydro, Crawl Smoke, built-in prop mod + engine boost, 12km single fire torpedoes
• F. Sherman: 324k SAP DPM, 5km Hydro, American Smoke, Defensive AA
• Harugumo: 30mm HE Pen, TRB on 6x 12km torps, IJN smoke, engine boost, good AA.
• Daring: Repair Party, Pop Smokes, 10km single-fire torpedoes, improved AP pen angles, built-in prop mod
• Halland: Repair Party, 15km fast torpedoes, best-in-tier AA
• Gearing: American Smoke, fantastic 16.5km torpedoes, good AA.     
• Lüshun: 5.5km Hydro, zombie heal, 11km Deepwater torps
• ...
• Hayate: TRB on 10x 12km torps, IJN smoke, engine boost.

All of the other members of this exclusive club have outstanding advantages in some department, whether it be vision-control (radar, hydro, smokes), mobility (built-in prop, emergency boost), survivability (repair party, AA), teamplay (long smoke, hydro), and/or torpedoes (long range, high speed). The Hayate just brings bog standard kit to the table, with the exception of the TRB. That one consumable better be able to do some heavy lifting, because that's just about all that she has that is special.

  Reveal hidden contents

Tier 10 DD High School Social Map

 

As the chart above hopefully indicates, the DPM buff moved the Hayate closer to the knot of stealthy DPM DDs comprised of Gearing, Daring. and Halland. 

A brief digression on the Torpedo Reload Booster

Is the Torpedo Reload Booster a strong enough tool to justify the Hayate's place in this group of super-versatile gunboats? Well, it's definitely much more of a conversation now that it has been given its own consumable slot, rather than requiring a player to give up smoke. It means that, roughly every four minutes, every Hayate has the option of doubling one of the most powerful torp spreads among T10 DDs.⁴ It is a consumable that opens up some interesting tactical options for cunning DD-captains, including but not limited to:

• Early torps: pop TRB at the start of the match and flood a cap with torps before the enemy DD expects there to be any.
• Instant punish: Spam torps normally but hold TRB in reserve until enemy reacts to them with a punish-able move.
• Impossible corner: Hold off a host of enemies with the knowledge that they can't just bait torps and trade 1-for-1.  

While these are interesting scenarios to contemplate, they can be quite rare. What is more, the effectiveness of the TRB is also determined in large part by the munition that it is helping to reload faster, namely the The Type 93 mod 3 torpedo. Looking at the numbers, it does appear to be a fearsome fish, doing 23,767 damage apiece -- the second-highest in the game -- which will make even the thickest torpedo belts cry. To balance it out, however, the developer has given it a 1.7km spotting distance on a good-but-not-great 67kts base speed, resulting in a 9.45s reaction time -- among the worst at its tier.⁵ That makes them extremely target and context dependent. The recipient should ideally:

• not be expecting torpedoes;
• not have any way of spotting torpedoes early (hydro, allies);
• not be in a ship that has good short-area mobility, and;
• not be in a position to make drastic maneuvers.

Thus Torpedo Reload Booster often looks scarier on paper than in practice, and I believe this is a lesson that WG, too, has been learning over the years. When TRB was first introduced in the very early days⁶ of the game, it was treated as a powerful tool which necessitated significant sacrifice. The ships that received the booster either had to give up a consumable (Shiratsuyu, Kagerō, Yūgumo: smoke; Huanghe: Hydro) or were at some sort of firepower disadvantage that required compensation (Akizuki, Kitakaze, Harugumo: only 1 torp launcher; Monaghan B, Yūdachi: abysmal gun power).

This 'handle-with-care' perception was likely reinforced by the Shiratsuyu debacle, where her separate-slot TRB was scapegoated for her excessive effectiveness upon release.⁷ Looking back, it would appear more accurate to say it was a perfect storm of excellent concealment, the fantastic type 90 mod. 1 torpedo, and the permanently-top-tier matchmaking that Tier 7s enjoyed at the time -- supercharged by the first real funny button in the game.   

As the years went by, however, the criteria for who was to receive a TRB were markedly loosened. By the time we saw the introduction of Pan-Asian super-light cruisers in update 0.11.0, the developer obviously no longer felt the consumable needed to be handled like weapons-grade uranium. How else to explain the fact that the twenty-torpedo Jinan was released with a sci-fi-esque Insta-Torpedo-Doublo-Matic 5000? Shortly afterwards, in update 0.11.4, the T8-T10 Pan-Asian DDs received a separate-slot torpedo reload booster -- for free -- no strings attached. As if in final repudiation of all lessons learned by the Shiratsuyu, the T7 Tashkent '39 was released in 0.12.3 with smoke and TRB in separate slots and arguably the best torpedoes yet seen at the tier. To me, this was a tacit admission by the developer that Torpedo Reload Booster has a very limited impact on the game. It is the sheep in wolf's clothing of WoWS consumables....

...To conclude this digression on Torpedo Reload Booster: it is a highly situational consumable that is dependent on a lot of factors to be successful. First among these is the torpedo which is being fired; occasionally re-doubling a salvo of easily spotted, slow-ish fish is not a reliable advantage. Secondly, the captain needs to get his ship into position to execute a successful torpedo strike, which is limited by the stealth and speed of the DD platform. Finally, the enemy must not have the ability to counter the torpedoes through early warning and/or dodging. In other words, for the TRB to really show value, a lot of things have to go right. As history has shown, the developer doesn't consider it to be much of a power-spike anymore.⁸

Another reload buff...

I have already kvetched at length about how DPM buffs are over-used and erode variety. However, in this case I think the outcome will be worse still:  it will stunt -- perhaps even wholly arrest -- Hayate's progress towards finding a happy place. 

As we saw in the charts above, the reload buff pushes the the Japanese DD more towards the center of the "Nasty Boys" club. That is an incredible group of ships with an awesome array of tools. To anyone with functioning eyes, the Hayate obviously doesn't belong there. She barely has the reload and stealth to qualify, and beyond that ... very little. I contend the Hayate would have been much happier among the "Normies" with middle-of-the-road DPM but some other cool feature(s) going for her. These could be something like: 

• Submarine Surveillance: We don't yet have DDs that can properly hunt subs -- thematically the Hayate could join Zao and Yodo in a useful niche within the meta. 
• Hydro: the Harekaze II already pioneered 5km hydro on a Japanese DD. Hydro would reinforce the Swiss-Army Knife flavor while reducing the number of torp hits suffered by the Hayate's bloaty hull.  
• 15km torps: Let's face it, 12km torps are the bare minimum at Tier 10 these days. More interesting and no less balanced would the option to run the 15km torps found on Yodo. 
• Torp Swap: Yamagiri, Dalarna, and upcoming Minegumo show the gameplay potential of being able to hot-swap between torp range/speed/alpha. Having both short-range and long range torps available at the push of a button would be very interesting.

I fear that the increase in reload has consigned the Hayate to a purgatory of being just good enough. Her guns and her increased torpedo output will pump up the damage numbers, which will create the illusion that she has arrived in a good place. She hasn't. She is still the spoon in a drawer full of knives. And now it might be another four years before the folks in charge realizes she's been in the wrong place all along.  

Conclusion

Moving Torpedo Reload Booster to a separate slot was the right move, but history shows it probably won't change much. Buffing the DPM will likely lock the Hayate into a cycle of semi-mediocrity from which it will be difficult to escape. 

 

 

 

 

Look out Mouse ^{(Litte Whilte Mouse)} , you now have competition for witty/humorous but spot on WOWS critiques....

....Actually kidding about ^^^ , but seriously I consider you the best, most entertaining, and favorite commentators on all things WOWS.

You must do some sort of writing either professionally or as hobby because you are seriously good at it.... and I will conclude my gushing for now....

...now I'd like to say something on your Hayate conclusions.  I mostly agree on your sentiment that the modest DPM improvement won't do much to prove Hayate's status the "Nasty" club or really it worth as an inmate in the T10 wing general population.  The way my opinion diverges from yours is in type of hypothetical love therapy that Hayate needs to escape from its broken home childhood and Research Bureau trauma. 

All the buffs you mentioned would help it more than 10% DPM boost, but in my experience the one thing that hurts Hayate the most is having to live with Gun boat concealment while having hybrid knife fight power.  It other words, it's a worse Gearing.  Even after buffs, still less DPM, torps aren't as good, and Geaing has a module to bring it close to Shima conceal. 

Torino, as mentioned before in your Leander Law of Serial Nerfing, this DPM buffs supports this theorum in that this buff suggests they are missing the problem.  While my experience is admitted limited with Hayate, I quickly discovered that it struggles with cap control.  Lacking special tools like hydro (Z42, lushun, etc.), or quick smoke/ heal combo (Daring), or even my sustain (Halland w/4 heals).

My hypothetical fix would be to give it at least Gearing level concealment but similar to YY or Vampire would be better.  2nd change would be an attribute buff to it's torps.  Longer range as you mentioned, but if I was a Hayate enjoyer I'd rather not have worst in class torp reaction time and something more like the 7.5 to 8 sec class average.

 

 

 

 

 

BTW-  you gave a ¹ foot note next to a Bearn mention.  I assuming that was be an enumeration of Bearn nerfs.  But on the subject of Bearn.  That one was born problem child.  Several experienced players (including me) communicated to WG, when Bearn was still in testing, that is was not only broken in it's DD interactions, it was pretty toxic on top of that.  In my case, I laid out specific examples and offered to give supporting replays.

They knew that Bearn had problems in its testing cycle.

One more thing..... how about changing your Leander law name to  Leander Law of Serial Balancing to cover buffs as well.  Also, I'd say that ships with similar history to Leander wouldn't violate the law but support it.