SoshiSone Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 Played three games tonight in my vaunted Vanguard. Game 1: T10 with only 1 T8 per side...poo! Game 2: T10 with only 2 T8 per side...poo poo! Game 3: T10 with only 1 T8 per side...poo poo poo! Game 1: Loss...finished 3rd. Game 2: Loss...finished 2nd. Game 3: Win (hoot!)...finshed 1st (hoot hoot hoot). Spoiler 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bumblegoose Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 These one-sided rollstomps as in Games 1 and 2 are deeply unsatisfying to experience. Especially when there are several in a row. Especially when they are red rolls rather than green rolls. However, your own performance was meritorious in all three games. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldSchoolGaming_Youtube Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 3 hours ago, SoshiSone said: Played three games tonight in my vaunted Vanguard. Game 1: T10 with only 1 T8 per side...poo! Game 2: T10 with only 2 T8 per side...poo poo! Game 3: T10 with only 1 T8 per side...poo poo poo! Game 1: Loss...finished 3rd. Game 2: Loss...finished 2nd. Game 3: Win (hoot!)...finshed 1st (hoot hoot hoot). Reveal hidden contents My experience, if it helps, is when I play T8 its better to play early evening, then you can get T9-6 games, playing T8 later in the evening its usually only against T10 and often you and one more as T8´s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OT2_2 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 19 minutes ago, Bumblegoose said: Especially when there are several in a row. Exactly! Playing randoms in WoW can be a very painful and frustrating affair ... Sometimes I almost understand people, who claim that the game is rigged. When losing 10 - 15 battles in a row, and I have had some of my best games ever during one of these "periods", one might get the feeling of being targeted. In any case, this has nothing to do with mathematical normal distribution. It doesn't help either that some people say / claim that it balances out over time ... And what can / should the time perspective be?! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bumblegoose Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 (edited) 49 minutes ago, OT2_2 said: Exactly! Playing randoms in WoW can be a very painful and frustrating affair ... Sometimes I almost understand people, who claim that the game is rigged. When losing 10 - 15 battles in a row, and I have had some of my best games ever during one of these "periods", one might get the feeling of being targeted. In any case, this has nothing to do with mathematical normal distribution. It doesn't help either that some people say / claim that it balances out over time ... And what can / should the time perspective be?! I find long stretches of random games - maybe 20 to 30, where things tend to go very well overall, with a nice win rate. Perhaps it is human nature that we attribute these good stretches to our fine play, rather than to good fortune. However, long stretches of miserable random games follow. We sail into battle with innocent optimism. However, we are shortly bought back to reality as a loud voice booms out as if from the heavens 'THE ENEMY IS ABOUT TO WIN'. Astonished, we look up at the teams list to find that we are already three to six ships down. We have only launched a few salvos. We are in blatant disbelief that so many of our teammates could have suicided so rapidly even if they had intended to do so. We redouble our efforts and fight back, even pursued relentlessly by three, four, five, six Reds with the scent of more blood in their nostrils. Occasionally, we can turn the tide, especially if we can find one or two sane green survivors of the carnage, or with a Solo Warrior. But more often than not, we are doomed. We lick our many wounds and play Co-op or another mode for a while. What surprises me is the length of some of these 'up' and 'down' cycles. I have no explanation for that. Edited November 22, 2023 by Bumblegoose 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I_cant_Swim_ Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 1 hour ago, OT2_2 said: Exactly! Playing randoms in WoW can be a very painful and frustrating affair ... Sometimes I almost understand people, who claim that the game is rigged. When losing 10 - 15 battles in a row, and I have had some of my best games ever during one of these "periods", one might get the feeling of being targeted. In any case, this has nothing to do with mathematical normal distribution. It doesn't help either that some people say / claim that it balances out over time ... And what can / should the time perspective be?! The statement on losing 10-15 battles in a row having nothing to do with mathematical normal distribution is Unfortunately incorrect, imo. The distribution is described by statistics. Assuming you are an average player either in div or not and team red has the same composition, you would be likely to lose every second match, corresponding to a probability of 0.5 for a loss. The probability of losing 2,3,4 etc up to 10 times in a row under these conditions is as follows (barring all modifiers): *Switch comma for a decimal point in the table. Last column has been rounded up to full numbers. Probability is not a guarantee, but if you have played 10,000 equally balanced games, you will quite probably have had a 10-game streak of losses 9 or 10 times. That is to be expected. It is just that we as humans have a difficult time accepting 10 losses in a row as something normal when it happens. Yet it is, if we play 10,000 times, quite normal to experience this almost 10 times. The weird thing is understanding probabilities. If you've already lost 10 games in a row, how likely are you to lose the eleventh game? Well, its a toss-up. A 50% chance. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I_cant_Swim_ Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 Yesterday I had a 4-game streak of losses in brawls. Very annoying, for sure. Yet. Based on the above, it's gonna happen again, and again. In fact, perhaps 625 times over the next 10,000 games. Dang! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admiral_Karasu Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 13 minutes ago, I_cant_Swim_ said: Yesterday I had a 4-game streak of losses in brawls. Very annoying, for sure. Yet. Based on the above, it's gonna happen again, and again. In fact, perhaps 625 times over the next 10,000 games. Dang! Only 4? Try harder, mate. 😜 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OT2_2 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 (edited) I'm not a masochist, and the perspective that the game results will balance out over a long period of time doesn't comfort me at all. It is deeply frustrating when I'm performing well and losing game after game. Some people will claim that one is getting the opportunity to learn more and that everything isn't that bad, but as a matter of fact more and more players are avoiding "Randoms" due to frustration. Most of us are not just playing to learn, but to experience the joy of game. This joy is hard to find IMO. When I read on Discord or are listening to several members of my clan I get the impression that in particular randoms are being far from being givers of pleasure and joy. Edited November 22, 2023 by OT2_2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admiral_Karasu Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 8 minutes ago, OT2_2 said: I'm not a masochist, and the perspective that the game results will balance out over a long period of time doesn't comfort me at all. It is deeply frustrating when I'm performing well and losing game after game. Some people will claim that one is getting the opportunity to learn more and that everything isn't that bad, but as a matter of fact more and more players are avoiding "Randoms" due to frustration. Most of us are not just playing to learn, but to experience the joy of game. This joy is hard to find IMO. When I read on Discord or are listening to several members of my clan I get the impression that in particular randoms are being far from being givers of pleasure and joy. Why do you think the game results will balance out over any period of time for any one particular player? Isn't this one more myth to add to the heap? 🍿 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yedwy Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 This game is rigged and randomised on so many levels not even the guys doing the code can follow the BS they made... Dont get me wrong you play good it still matters but WG sure as f* makes every possible effort to make outcomes as random as possible or as rigged toi their goals as possible 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OT2_2 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Admiral_Karasu said: Why do you think the game results will balance out over any period of time for any one particular player? Isn't this one more myth to add to the heap? Honestly spoken, I don't believe in this story of "balancing out" over time. Heap or pile of (presumptions) as you call it, describes it very well IMO. Edited November 22, 2023 by OT2_2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin_Simpleton Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 (edited) I'm going to try to say something about this 3 hours ago, OT2_2 said: Exactly! Playing randoms in WoW can be a very painful and frustrating affair ... Sometimes I almost understand people, who claim that the game is rigged. When losing 10 - 15 battles in a row, and I have had some of my best games ever during one of these "periods", one might get the feeling of being targeted. In any case, this has nothing to do with mathematical normal distribution. It doesn't help either that some people say / claim that it balances out over time ... And what can / should the time perspective be?! I consider myself to be an example of the average player. I see my win rate goes up and down at different rates but over-all, it has the same slope as average damage and PR which are darn near straight lines. I have no explanation for the shape of the avg. experience curve. Edited November 22, 2023 by Justin_Simpleton 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a252 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 WG hates me too. It took a week and 47 ranked grinds to reach bronze 1 , then another week with 37 grinds to pass qualifiers. At the end I only have time to collect 200 steel from silver ranked... At least I can farm 400 dub each sprint afterward 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolfswetpaws Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 Win? Loss? Whatever? I still made progress on something, possibly a ship grind or the completion of a mission task. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asym Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, Wolfswetpaws said: Win? Loss? Whatever? I still made progress on something, possibly a ship grind or the completion of a mission task. That is kind of sad..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HogHammer Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Justin_Simpleton said: I consider myself to be an example of the average player. I see my win rate goes up and down at different rates but over-all, it has the same slope as average damage and PR which are darn near straight lines. I have no explanation for the shape of the avg. experience curve. It looks to be going all over because of the range scale (left side of graphs), when in fact, they are minor bumps in the road. When you look at the WR on your scale, you are down from 45.60 to 45.50. That's nothing if you think about it. With a lot of battles under your belt, it becomes harder and harder to make significant jumps in win or loss %. Even with your Average Experience, take a close look at it - it's from 1,197 to 1,193. Again, the ranges presented on the side of the graphs make things look skewed. Really, I see some nice positives in your charts - One, It looks like your damage is consistently increasing (good) and your PR is increasing (Personal Rating is a measure of skill in WoWs. It measures performance in every warship and compares it to certain expected values. Differences between actual and expected values are used to calculate the final Personal Rating), that too is consistently increasing. Again, look at the ranges to put things in perspective... 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asym Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 3 hours ago, I_cant_Swim_ said: The statement on losing 10-15 battles in a row having nothing to do with mathematical normal distribution is Unfortunately incorrect, imo. The distribution is described by statistics. Assuming you are an average player either in div or not and team red has the same composition, you would be likely to lose every second match, corresponding to a probability of 0.5 for a loss. The probability of losing 2,3,4 etc up to 10 times in a row under these conditions is as follows (barring all modifiers): *Switch comma for a decimal point in the table. Last column has been rounded up to full numbers. Probability is not a guarantee, but if you have played 10,000 equally balanced games, you will quite probably have had a 10-game streak of losses 9 or 10 times. That is to be expected. It is just that we as humans have a difficult time accepting 10 losses in a row as something normal when it happens. Yet it is, if we play 10,000 times, quite normal to experience this almost 10 times. The weird thing is understanding probabilities. If you've already lost 10 games in a row, how likely are you to lose the eleventh game? Well, its a toss-up. A 50% chance. One small problem: we aren't a skill based game...... And, as a mature game, we don't have anything close to a "normal distribution". So, if we are a "left skewed game", and we are IMO, we see left skewed results all of the time in any PVP mode of play.... More losses than wins. Stomps. Noobs playing against years older veterans and cascading error losses... Static populations with no growth. Clones of clones. No new anything.....no innovation in a Red Ocean, small niche game.... Frozen in the Horse Latitude with endless sargassum of complacency that halts all hope...... Just my opinion..... It's why I gave up PVP completely. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolfswetpaws Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 23 minutes ago, Asym said: That is kind of sad..... I disagree. Not every game is going to be a win. I accept that. Also, some defeats were fun to play because of a closely fought match that was exciting or wild in one way or another. Good play is entertaining and good sportsmanship means not taking a loss personally. Win some, lose some. No need to be upset about it. 🙂 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I_cant_Swim_ Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 58 minutes ago, Asym said: One small problem: we aren't a skill based game...... And, as a mature game, we don't have anything close to a "normal distribution". That doesn't matter. Roughening up the parameter list while keeping team assignment random only flattens the bell curve, not skew it left or right. If the assignment is not random, for example because groups of 2-3 relatively good players always play in a div at a certain time of day, and you play then too but MM cannot find a div for opposite team, your probability of landing in the opposite team is higher, as then your likelihood of losing the match given an otherwise normal skill distribution. Although Because there may be more losses than wins for you (and me), someone has to win. And that person is therefore likely doing something right. Like playing in a good div since trying to carry alone is that much more prone to failure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HogHammer Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 34 minutes ago, Asym said: One small problem: we aren't a skill based game...... While I realize this is your opinion/line of thought, I'm sure that players who have genuinely worked at improving their game over the years would disagree. There are players, who, if they played the exact same ship with all the dressings and same captain skills, I would"clean their clock". Conversely, there are players in this game, who I know, would do the same to me and have fun doing it. Skill-based games depend on the player's individual skill set. The randomness of matchmaking is a completely different matter taking in various components. Player population and queue times can affect this greatly (got to keep things moving along) - and if you are on the defeated team side, you basically got the short end of the stick. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asym Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, HogHammer said: and if you are on the defeated team side, you basically got the short end of the stick. I agree. But, when the short end of the stick is stuck through your foot, you can't move... Can't grow. Can't even play because of constant losses "you have no ability to control"... And that, is why our clan's divisioning in Randoms ended.... There was no upside. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palestreamer Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 According to wows-numbers, a "good" player has a 52% win rate. In 10,000 games this is 5,200 victories and 4,800 losses. So over 10,000 games a good player actually only wins slightly more than they lose. I'm not a mathematician to explain it but this is perhaps a sign of the good balance in wows matchmaking and ship strengths: no matter how good you are or what ship you sail you can end up on crappy teams, and it all kind of evens out in the end. Good and bad streaks happen to everyone, but certainly with good skill over time you can do better than the average. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torino2dc Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Asym said: One small problem: we aren't a skill based game Uhhhhh. Not sure how you arrived at that spectacularly incorrect conclusion. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asym Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 (edited) 29 minutes ago, torino2dc said: Uhhhhh. Not sure how you arrived at that spectacularly incorrect conclusion. Oh-Kay. this is a good conversation to have ! What skill gates exist between tiers to progress up or down ? none. What skill gates or skill requirements are required to play upper level tiers? none. Can anyone buy whatever ship they want? Yes.....so, no skill metric is required to own anything? yep. What skill gates or requirements are used in Clan Battles? none. Upper level teams massacre lower level teams at CB start. Our clan lost 8 or 9 to 1 for days. Can upper level players farm lower level players? Yes. In fact, that is how some of the Barney level players post some of those high scores ! Does our game even have a "skill metric" that doesn't involve RNG? Nope. How does "divisioning" alter win rate and is the skill applied to all members of the division. Yes - no skill partitioning based on individual effort. Do we have a skill based MM? No. Do we have a Combat Efficiency metric to even use to compare skill? No. So, the game really is just a cooperative, young adult FPS shooter without any skill based separation for anything..... And, from playing several games that have skill based leveling..........can't play up till you earn it. Edited November 22, 2023 by Asym 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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