A Proposal to Change Win rate.

[Chiron]

Currently when you look at your win rate what you are actually seeing is your win record of all games played expressed as a percentage. It is your win record whether you have 50 games, 5000, 10000 or more games. But the rate at which you win games is very likely a lot better, one hopes, when you have reached 5000 or more than it was when you were playing your first 200 or 300. And for slow learners like me those early day games are an anchor dragging down your win rate.

If for instance you have 5000 games and a 49% winrate/record and you are trying to make it to the magic 50% mark, it is almost impossible to move the needle. Now I'm not a mathematician but as I calculate it, if you have 5000 games at 49% that means you won 2450 of those 5000 games. To make it to 50% you must win 2500 of those 5000 games, which means you need to win 50 games in a row without a loss to 'move the needle'. Well that's pretty hard to do. Especially if your a "50ish" percenter. In fact of course you would never get there if you were a 50% player. Now if your game had improved over the last 1000 games to the point where you are now a 60% player, and you won 60 of your next 100 games you would have a 49.21% winrate/record based 2510 wins on the 5100 total games played. Maybe there is a math guy out who can calculate the progression but you would have to win hundreds of games at a 60% winrate just to get to 50%! If your 52% or 53% well more like thousands.

If win rate was based on say the last 1000 games played, (pick a number?)well that would only be 10 wins in a row to 'move the needle'. If you won 60 of your next 100 games, 60%,well that would get you to 50%.

Now I am not suggesting that winrate be based on some hyper sensitive number like 10 or 20, things would go up and down like a yoyo. But we have players here with 25,000 games! Now a math guy might say that the more games a person has played the more the win record accurately reflects their current win rate, not sure, but that may be. But there is enough variety and change in the game to affect players win rates whether it is new ships, new environments like submarines, CV and Captain reworks or flagships that are coming. WoWs is always trying to keep the game growing.

Finally, no I am not crazy hung up on my winrate. I have seen lots of chat over the years about it though. For me it is just a fun goal to reach just like winning national emblems or gunnery badges, or Captains in the chain events, its just fun to work towards them. I play on the NA servers as Argonautica_x with a 50.95% winrate over about 3500 games, and as Jno Aubrey with a 45ish% winrate over 1800 games ( why two ID's, long story about a recovered laptop!)  

Love the game!

Thoughts!!

 

 

[majmac]

Frankly, who really cares?

Some people obsess over win rate, pouring over stats before each match and it does nothing to move the needle marker. All it does is raise the blood pressure and toxic comment rates of the one obsessing over them.

My win rate is only viewable to the Clan I am in, because I am so tired of those who think that win rate is a measure of who you are.

So, my suggestion to you would be to keep you own spreadsheet on your win/loss after each battle and track your own. That is an easy thing you can do without WG having to change the APIs for such places as those who list players' win rates.

[clammboy]

Tomato.gg is a good site if you want to see your overall and say your last 1000 game stats. It breaks it down and makes it much easier for you to see your last 200, 500 or 1000 game win rate and stats then wows stat tracker. Wont help what people see in game because they only see the full total but who cares about that. If you see a total win rate of 47% but it's 53% over the last 1000 games then your heading in the right direction nobody but you needs to know that anyway.

Edited December 19, 2024 by clammboy

[Itwastuesday]

Only kinda matters for matchmaking monitor. I'd like for it to have some setting to show if the tendency of player is going up, flatlining or declining. Perhaps a 45% player is steadily going toward 50% and actually been winning more lately than losing, some advice on such a player might not actually be wasted. 

[OldSchoolGaming_Youtube]

3 hours ago, Chiron said:

Currently when you look at your win rate what you are actually seeing is your win record of all games played expressed as a percentage................

 

3 hours ago, majmac said:

Frankly, who really cares?

..........

This!

To be honest, there was a time many years ago when I cared about my WR because I felt it actually stood for something, but since then I have realized that it doesn't really matter and means fook all!

1. First off, I see soooo many players with Super unicum stats that play like donkeys on the regular which makes me really question how the hell did they get that WR in the first place. Im no expert but im pretty sure there are many ways to cheat youre way to higher WR (Div playing, sync dropping etc etc etc I dont know and I dont care). But to many unicum and Super unicum players play like crap that WR means nothing whatsoever to me. What means something to me is what you are capable of doing in game when it comes to reading the game, reading the minimap, communicating, see where you should go etc etc.
2. Most players that use WR as an argument usually turns out being very crap at the game. Players that actually are skilled in this game dont need to cram some WG statistic down others throats.
3. This game and its playerbase is really going down the shitter. You see bot behavior in T10 players so often these days that you start to wonder if they are WG Bot accounts to just boost the player numbers for potential investors.
4. If you focus on stuff like WR in this current state of the game and playerbase you will just make yourself miserable, because with all new OP/Unbalanced classes and ships and shitty game modes (like donkey traded "Arms race" that just force DDs to suicide for buffs and boosters makes 14 min games to last 8 instead), shitty team members and shitty mechanics you and youre skill have less and less impact on games and actually winning.

Many years ago I started to give Zero Foooks about this game and winning, I just play the best I can and when I die or the game is lost in 8 min because my entire team suicided in 5, I just press "Battle on" until im done for the day and I have never been enjoying the game as much as I do now days. I Hardly never rage attack some donkeys in chat or in port I just realize that most of the playerbase are as they are and play on. 

Edited December 19, 2024 by OldSchoolGaming_Youtube

[torino2dc]

Quote from this thread (link below) talking about how to think about WR in a more useful way:

"If you want a more tangible handhold, I would recommend sticking with the same ship for 20 battles without much interruption by other classes (can be spread over several days to randomize the matchmaking a bit). 

When you're done, watch the 20 replays. ~7 of them will be auto-losses; not much to be done but padding stats as much as possible. Also ~7 will be auto-wins where MM gave you the obviously superior team. The remaining ~6 are the matches that could have gone either way. 

Identify these swing matches, study what went right/wrong. This is where you improve your WR."

https://www.devstrike.net/topic/4167-the-50-blues/#findComment-58748

[tocqueville8]

Sounds like you want a "moving average", possibly a weighed one, with a customizable sweep.

It sounds reasonable, but I believe it would require the detailed knowledge of the underlying function (your string of wins/losses, say WWLLLLWWLWLLWLWL, etc.). I'm not even sure that's stored anywhere: for all I know, there's simply a counter for your overall wins/losses and one for each of the last few days, weeks and months.

[Wolfswetpaws]

9 hours ago, Chiron said:

Currently when you look at your win rate what you are actually seeing is your win record of all games played expressed as a percentage. It is your win record whether you have 50 games, 5000, 10000 or more games. But the rate at which you win games is very likely a lot better, one hopes, when you have reached 5000 or more than it was when you were playing your first 200 or 300. And for slow learners like me those early day games are an anchor dragging down your win rate.

If for instance you have 5000 games and a 49% winrate/record and you are trying to make it to the magic 50% mark, it is almost impossible to move the needle. Now I'm not a mathematician but as I calculate it, if you have 5000 games at 49% that means you won 2450 of those 5000 games. To make it to 50% you must win 2500 of those 5000 games, which means you need to win 50 games in a row without a loss to 'move the needle'. Well that's pretty hard to do. Especially if your a "50ish" percenter. In fact of course you would never get there if you were a 50% player. Now if your game had improved over the last 1000 games to the point where you are now a 60% player, and you won 60 of your next 100 games you would have a 49.21% winrate/record based 2510 wins on the 5100 total games played. Maybe there is a math guy out who can calculate the progression but you would have to win hundreds of games at a 60% winrate just to get to 50%! If your 52% or 53% well more like thousands.

If win rate was based on say the last 1000 games played, (pick a number?)well that would only be 10 wins in a row to 'move the needle'. If you won 60 of your next 100 games, 60%,well that would get you to 50%.

Now I am not suggesting that winrate be based on some hyper sensitive number like 10 or 20, things would go up and down like a yoyo. But we have players here with 25,000 games! Now a math guy might say that the more games a person has played the more the win record accurately reflects their current win rate, not sure, but that may be. But there is enough variety and change in the game to affect players win rates whether it is new ships, new environments like submarines, CV and Captain reworks or flagships that are coming. WoWs is always trying to keep the game growing.

Finally, no I am not crazy hung up on my winrate. I have seen lots of chat over the years about it though. For me it is just a fun goal to reach just like winning national emblems or gunnery badges, or Captains in the chain events, its just fun to work towards them. I play on the NA servers as Argonautica_x with a 50.95% winrate over about 3500 games, and as Jno Aubrey with a 45ish% winrate over 1800 games ( why two ID's, long story about a recovered laptop!)  

Love the game!

Thoughts!!

 

 

Create your own statistics website and connect with the WOWs API.
Categorize and define the statistics as you prefer.
Problem solved.  🙂 

[Frostbow]

3 hours ago, tocqueville8 said:

Sounds like you want a "moving average", possibly a weighed one, with a customizable sweep.

It sounds reasonable, but I believe it would require the detailed knowledge of the underlying function (your string of wins/losses, say WWLLLLWWLWLLWLWL, etc.). I'm not even sure that's stored anywhere: for all I know, there's simply a counter for your overall wins/losses and one for each of the last few days, weeks and months.

I think wows-numbers has a similar feature.

"Last 7 days", "Last 21 days", "Last 90 days".

They all contain the number of battles, win rate, average battle values, etc., per timeframe column. I think it is useful to see how one has been progressing/regressing. 

[Frostbow]

9 hours ago, majmac said:

Frankly, who really cares?

No one, in general, unless the player wants to measure his progress, in which case, he needs to go beyond a single metric and dive deep into other equally (or even more) important stats.

[Frostbow]

9 hours ago, Chiron said:

Finally, no I am not crazy hung up on my winrate.

Good. Because it really is not worth getting hung up on. 

I went through that phase where I got concerned about my win rate (and it was when I was already playing Tier IX ships), but that phase died a quick death when I learned that there are ways to pad one's win rate. For example, playing a Giulio Cesare during late hours guarantees the player a roster full of bots on both sides, making for an easy victory in Random Battles. A fellow forum member unwittingly confirmed that this is his tactic in one of his posts a few months ago.

What I personally track is my Base XP. I am happy if I land in the top 3 of the scoreboard. But there are times though when I am frustrated because my efforts were not enough to place 3rd. LOL

[Wulf_Ace]

Took me one month to improve from 55.3 to 55.4

Took me 3 months from 54,97 to 55,42

Around 350/370 battles

Would you consider this little or big progression?

EDIT

The more you play the curve should improve, if you are not improving then its definitly up to you, Beacouse you are not willing to learn from your mistakes, you keep playing the same games over and over and hoping that others will improve your WR, when in fact you can improve your WR. 

Edited December 19, 2024 by Wulf_Ace

[tocqueville8]

1 hour ago, Frostbow said:

I think wows-numbers has a similar feature.

"Last 7 days", "Last 21 days", "Last 90 days".

They all contain the number of battles, win rate, average battle values, etc., per timeframe column. I think it is useful to see how one has been progressing/regressing. 

Sure, but as I said it's just the "last <period of time>" from now: you can't see how your "last 90 days" winrate evolved between Jan. and Jun. 2022, let's say. There's also the issue that different periods might end up being samples of very different size, if you don't play regularly.

Again, I don't know if one's WoWs account even has the required information stored anywhere. A player could definitely write it down himself on a file and run a script on it, but only for future games.

Edited December 19, 2024 by tocqueville8

[GandalfTehGray]

As a former recruiter for a upper tier clan, you don't need to be concerned about the overalls as much as recent performance. 

It's better to just keep playing and only check your stats occasionally if you are trying to hit a specific mark. 

[mashed68]

Win rate, overall or recent, is utter crap. I don't give any flying f's about it what so ever.

Now, average damage dealt, XP earned, etc, those matter to me.

I had a 10 game loosing streak in ranked a couple weeks ago. But I was still getting 1200+ bxp games as the top player on my loser teams. Should tell people your a good player even if the win rate is low. 

[Hugh_Ruka]

How about we remove it completely ? It has no impact on the game and just causes frustration for a lot of players.

[pew_pew_magoo]

Or, you guys could just play better. The game isn’t hard at all even for new players. Don’t forget that even at 48%, you are still average. If it doesn’t matter to you that’s fine, but just don’t be the kind of player with bad stats that’s says they don’t matter and try to tell players what to do after you die first.  

[Chiron]

Well I may not have explained myself well. I wasn't arguing for a method to improve win rate. Just for one that would accurately reflect win rate, whether it is going up or down.