Santa crate strategy...a question

[desmo_2]

It seems to me it would make sense to not buy or open Mega Santa crates until you have received all possible free regular Gift crates.  You might pull a lower tier ship from a free Gift crate that would remove such 'less desirable' ship from the pool of possibilities from the Mega Santa crates, which can drop higher end ships. 

Does this theory hold water, or is there a mechanic in place that makes this strategy irrelevant?

[UnderTheRadarAgain]

Your theory is valid.

Equally as valid as opening the crates in any other order or as you get them.

Ship drops are taken from the available pool regardless of what crate you open. My first xmas event, in 2019, I received rare ships in the small crates. Specifically Kutuzov and Gremyashi. Both in the rare pool that has the lowest % chance to drop. I had only a small fleet that year in my port.

Keep all the crap ships - permanently eliminating them from the pool of available ships in the remaining crates. Never sell a premium ship you hate - you WILL get it back.

[tangofan]

48 minutes ago, desmo_2 said:

It seems to me it would make sense to not buy or open Mega Santa crates until you have received all possible free regular Gift crates.  You might pull a lower tier ship from a free Gift crate that would remove such 'less desirable' ship from the pool of possibilities from the Mega Santa crates, which can drop higher end ships. 

Does this theory hold water, or is there a mechanic in place that makes this strategy irrelevant?

Yes, the drop rates of regular Santa Crates are indeed more tilted toward the lower group of ships compared to Mega crates, so your strategy makes sense. However the ship drop rates of regular crates are so low that I'm not sure that you'll see much of a difference.

[Admiral_Karasu]

7 hours ago, tangofan said:

Yes, the drop rates of regular Santa Crates are indeed more tilted toward the lower group of ships compared to Mega crates, so your strategy makes sense. However the ship drop rates of regular crates are so low that I'm not sure that you'll see much of a difference.

But you won't lose anything doing it that way, either.

[tocqueville8]

Mega crates are only barely more skewed towards better drops than the regular ones, but that won't matter as long as there are outstanding (I mean not yet acquired) ships in the 1st list (Tier 5-7s, plus Picardie and Theseus), since that's what most crates are going to roll.

The question is what the strategy should be if overall you expect enough ships to completely drain that first pool. On the one hand, with each roll you'd hope for/prefer ships from lists #2 and #3; on the other hand, getting them from list #1 works towards completing it earlier and ensuring your next drop will be from the better lists. So is there a difference?

Maybe one could write a script to test things rigorously, but let's go with a thought experiment:

1. you have only 1 ship left in list #1, the least valuable one
2. you have a small crate and a mega crate, both somehow guaranteed to drop a ship: say you've reached the pity drop on both, or say you have more, but we're not counting them because they'll mostly drop other goodies
3. the question is: which one do you open first?

• if you open the regular crate first...80% chance is that you'll get the last ship from list #1, which automatically improves the drops of the mega one, guaranteeing a ship from lists #2-3. The other 20% chance is that you'll get a ship from lists #2-3, in which case the mega one has still 75% chance of list #1 and 25% of lists #2-3. Overall: 80% + (20%*75%) = 95% of a ship from list #1 and a ship from lists #2-3. The other 5% of getting two ships from lists #2-3.
• if you open the Mega crate first...75% chance is that you'll get the last ship from the 1st list and improve future drops. The other 25% chance is that you'll get a ship from lists #2-3, in which case the mega one has still 80% chance of list #1 and 20% of lists #2-3. Overall: 75% + (25%*80%) = 95% of a ship from list #1 and a ship from lists #2-3. The other 5% of getting two ships from lists #2-3.
• It's the same! And not because of the specific values. Granted, this doesn't necessarily extend to how the drop improvement affects the difference between list #2 and #3, but I'm too lazy to check.

Basically, opening the small crate first is more likely to clear out undesired ships, but there's less to earn in "promoting" a Mega crate's drops than a regular crate's drops, and the two things cancel each other out. Also, that 5% chance of getting a ship from the better lists both times still works against you for the next drop.

Edited December 2, 2024 by tocqueville8

[Estaca_de_Bares]

2 hours ago, tocqueville8 said:

[...]

Maybe one could write a script to test things rigorously, but let's go with a thought experiment:

[...]

Well, there are some nuances that affect your thought experiment (and any other calculation for that matter) depending on how the ship pool/draw operates, i.e. if there's a compensation system for duplicates (e.g., the crate would've dropped a ship you already have so it gives you credits/doubloons/whatever instead) or a re-roll in the reduced pool. Although -as far as we know- the second method is how things work, I've done the math for both.

As per your thought experiment, it's true that pulling both ships from lists #2-3 has a probability of 1 out of 20 (all probabilities I'll mention from now on are going to be only the fractional numerators, for they're all "over 20"), but compensation and re-roll function quite differently:

• In compensation, probabilities are independent so it wouldn't matter which crate is opened first, but there's also the option of both "ships" (I put it in quotation marks because either one or both could be compensations) coming from list #1 with a chance of 12.
• In re-roll there's dependency: the probability of the second opened crate being from each list is affected by what came out of the first one. Opening Normal first gives a probability of 17 to the Mega being from lists #2-3 no matter what Normal contained, while opening Mega first provides only a chance of 16 for Normal.

Thus, opening Normal first does actually improve guaranteeing a drop from lists #2-3.

Salute.

P.S.: I think I'll save this discussion and calculations as a practical example. It's a pity my students won't be touching probability until their 3rd term at school due to how the curriculum is organized and taught.